Oil Price Forecast

How Are Oil Prices Forecasted?

Oil price forecasting blends fundamental supply-demand analysis, technical indicators, and macro-level risk assessment. Analysts track physical inventories (EIA weekly stock reports, Cushing levels), production data (OPEC+ quotas, US rig counts, Russian export volumes), consumer demand (refinery throughput, gasoline and jet fuel consumption), and macro variables like the US dollar index and interest-rate expectations. On top of those fundamentals, short-term forecasters use price action, options skew, and futures term structure (contango or backwardation) to gauge market sentiment.

Oil Dashboard automates a slice of this process for the next-day horizon. Our forecast engine pulls FRED historical prices, aggregates oil market news, and feeds them into a large language model (Google Gemini) along with a structured prompt asking for a directional call, a point estimate, and a confidence band. The output is stored daily and compared against actual closes to track accuracy over time.

유가 전망 방법론

원유 가격 예측은 수급 분석(OPEC+ 감산, 미국 재고, 중국 수요), 기술적 지표(이동평균, 콘탱고/백워데이션 구조), 거시 변수(달러 인덱스, 금리)를 종합해 이루어집니다. 본 대시보드는 FRED의 WTI·브렌트 과거 가격과 실시간 원유 뉴스를 구글 Gemini 모델에 전달해 다음 거래일의 가격·방향·신뢰구간을 산출하고, 결과를 저장해 실제 종가와 비교한 정확도를 추적합니다. AI 기반 유가 전망은 OPEC 감산, 중동 정세, 전쟁 영향과 같은 변수까지 반영하도록 설계되었습니다.

Forecast Accuracy

Important Disclaimer

These forecasts are educational and informational — not financial advice. Oil prices are driven by unpredictable events (wars, OPEC surprise cuts, Iran sanctions, pipeline sabotage) that no model can anticipate perfectly. Always do your own research and consult a licensed advisor before making trading decisions. 본 유가 전망은 참고용이며 투자 권유가 아닙니다.