Oil Price Forecast

How Are Oil Prices Forecasted?

Oil price forecasting blends fundamental supply-demand analysis, technical indicators, and macro-level risk assessment. Analysts track physical inventories (EIA weekly stock reports, Cushing levels), production data (OPEC+ quotas, US rig counts, Russian export volumes), consumer demand (refinery throughput, gasoline and jet fuel consumption), and macro variables like the US dollar index and interest-rate expectations. On top of those fundamentals, short-term forecasters use price action, options skew, and futures term structure (contango or backwardation) to gauge market sentiment.

Oil Dashboard automates a slice of this process for the next-day horizon. Our forecast engine pulls FRED historical prices and backtests several no-cost candidate rules, including short momentum, weighted momentum, mean reversion, and blended momentum. It uses the strongest recent candidate for the next-session forecast, then stores the output daily and compares it against actual closes to track accuracy over time.

유가 전망 방법론

원유 가격 예측은 수급 분석(OPEC+ 감산, 미국 재고, 중국 수요), 기술적 지표(이동평균, 콘탱고/백워데이션 구조), 거시 변수(달러 인덱스, 금리)를 종합해 이루어집니다. 본 대시보드는 FRED의 WTI·브렌트 과거 가격에서 단기 모멘텀, 가중 모멘텀, 평균 회귀, 혼합 모멘텀 후보를 백테스트해 최근 성능이 가장 좋은 모델을 선택합니다. 이후 변동성 구간을 반영해 다음 거래일의 가격·방향·신뢰구간을 산출하고, 결과를 저장해 실제 종가와 비교한 정확도를 추적합니다.

Forecast Accuracy

Important Disclaimer

These forecasts are educational and informational — not financial advice. Oil prices are driven by unpredictable events (wars, OPEC surprise cuts, Iran sanctions, pipeline sabotage) that no model can anticipate perfectly. Always do your own research and consult a licensed advisor before making trading decisions. 본 유가 전망은 참고용이며 투자 권유가 아닙니다.